Posted on June 10, 2015 by Matt Pressman
Last night, after watching the Tesla Shareholder Meeting livestream and carefully taking notes, we wanted to recap (what we think) were some pertinent highlights for both Tesla owners, future owners, and TSLA shareholders. We've also included both video highlights and the complete video at the bottom of this post.
Tesla Motors (TSLA) Forecast
Tesla CEO Elon Musk told shareholders that Tesla Motors is on track for continued steep growth. "It seems likely that we'll be able to maintain a roughly 50% average growth rate per year for several years to come," said Musk. "It won't be 50% each year, but I think 50% on average is quite an achievable target." Also, a new milestone was hit yesterday as Musk noted that, "... at 2pm today, we did our two billionth mile for Tesla." See below for chart showing Tesla's increasing deliveries.
Model S Sales
Musk also showed a graph (see below) illustrating that the Tesla Model S is currently the #1 seller in the high end premium sedan category in the US. Also, Musk explained that upwards of a 1/3 of all Model S customers are now selecting the 70D. In addition, Tesla plans to open up sales in Mexico later this year. Musk noted that the Model S has the lowest probability for injury of any car ever tested. Only about 1% of cars achieve 5 stars in all categories and subcategories. He noted that, "most car companies round up their safety scores) like a GPA."
Model X Update
Musk stated that he's "expecting to begin our first deliveries [of Model X] in probably about 3 or 4 months.” He explained, "We want to make sure that some of the features, particularly the Falcon wing doors, second row seats, and a few other things people aren't aware of, are done just right. And provide true functionality and true value improvement... getting those final nuances of the Model X are what we're focused on now. But we're really in the short-strokes of getting this thing to market." He also explained that the "Model X will be the same drivetrain" as Model S. He estimates that the Model X will have the lowest probability of any injury of any SUV. It’s shaping up to be 5 stars in every safety category and sub-category. Musk also proclaimed that the Model X may be a better SUV than the Model S is a sedan.
U.S. (and worldwide) coverage is broadening impressively in 2016. And, next generation supercharger liquid cooled cables (already at the Mountain View Supercharger location) will be thinner and more supple, but, will actually have more power. And, further upgrades are also planned. Over time, Tesla is planning is install more solar panels to power superchargers. Musk also reaffirmed that supercharger use is free forever.
Powerwall and Tesla Energy
"Powerwall is going from 2kw steady, 3.2 kw peak to 5kw steady, 7kw peak. Price Unchanged.” Therefore, power output will more than double and the price will stay the same. So the Powerwall is improving both the capability and cost. Tesla will prioritize initial Powerwall deliveries to those who have solar installations. Musk expects people to purchase and install the Powerwall for about $4k. Regarding the Tesla Energy sales mix, Musk explained that 80% of sales will be for Powerpack (geared towards commercial customers and utilities).
Tesla is expanding a new castings and machining center in Lathrop, CA to free up space in Fremont. Lathrop will allow Fremont to become more dedicated to final assembly. And, at Fremont, there is a new body center which will be 3x more production capable. A new stamping press and new paint center have also been introduced. The new paint center is capable of doing 10,000 cars/week and is already set up for Model 3 production. Musk explained, "New paint center can paint at 500,000 units per year. Most advanced in world"
The Gigafactory 1 will start building battery packs by the middle of next year. Musk expects full production in 3-4 years. He mentioned that Gigafactory 2 and 3 may already be in planning even before Gigafactory 1 is complete. He reiterated that Gigafactory 1 is set up for 500,000 cars and 15GW for stationary.
Autopilot version one is intended for “load alleviation” for the driver, but, the driver is still expected to pay attention (similar to autopilot in planes). Musk is testing version one right now and iterating on improvements. It should be out (in beta) by the end of this month. He defined the upcoming auto-steer functionality as a “driver assistance feature.” Musk estimated that you should be able to "go to sleep and wake up at your destination" from a technical standpoint, in three years. After it’s demonstrated to regulators (from a statistical standpoint) that it's 10x safer — regulation may come in another 1-3 years. Musk says with research in AI constantly getting better, that timeframe may even shorten.
Model 3 base version of the car will be single motor in it's standard version but dual motor would be an option. An important side note: in a June 8th article, it was noted that Musk said, "Tesla is on pace to release its next-generation Model 3 electric car by 2017. The car will sell for around $35,000 and have a driving range of at least 250 miles." We have yet to see the video from the Edison Electric Institute annual convention where Musk spoke - so we can't confirm this yet - but this could be big news if it's confirmed.
Battery Pack Swap
Battery pack swap is unlikely to be expanded due to a low "take rate" as almost all CA owners have received an invitation and few seem interested. The initial 200 invitations yielded only 4-5 people interested and they only chose to do it once.
When asked if SpaceX will go public, Musk said, "Space X will go public once we have regular flights to Mars." Musk noted that he'll look into various requests for offering alternative non-leather interior options. And, Tesla will be bringing on a new chief financial officer as current CFO Deepak Ahuja will retire later this year.
Source: Tesla Motors