Posted on July 19, 2016 by Matt Pressman
Navigant Research predicts that North American plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales will close in on 200,000 units this year. If achieved, sales will have grown by 62% year-over-year. The report explains that some of 2016's PEV growth is likely coming from Tesla Model X sales. Navigant's Scott Shepard has high expectations for the coming years as well: "The long-range BEV [battery electric vehicle] under $40,000 is a marked achievement in the industry. This development is expected to significantly increase PEV adoption... Introduction of the Tesla Model 3 in late 2017 will likely boost the market by about 60% in 2017 and then nearly double the market in 2018 as the first full year of Model 3 sales is achieved."
Above: Tesla Model X and Tesla Roadster (Source: CleanTechnica / © 2015 Bonnie Norman)
Navigant predicts strong plug-in electric car sales growth for North America through 2025. The chart below shows PEV (plug-in electric vehicle) sales forecasted to reach nearly 1.4 million by 2025. Since the PEV market launched in 2011, sales have been concentrated on the U.S. West Coast, and, as evidenced below, California will continue to play a dominant role in North American sales in the upcoming decade as well.
Above: Forecast for North American plug-in electric vehicle sales by major market (Source: InsideEVs via Navigant Research)
But, it's not just new car sales. Auto Cheat Sheet just published an article titled, Electric Cars Now Dominate Used Auto Market, which explains, "Looking at the secondhand market, iSeeCars.com zeroed in on 2.2 million vehicles from model years 2013 through 2015 that were listed and sold in the first five months of 2016. Compared to the 42.5 average days for a gasoline car on the used market, electric cars took just 29.2 days to sell." Why? "According to iSeeCars.com CEO Phong Ly, there are various factors at work here, including the coveted HOV lane access in California... [and] limited inventory and high new sticker prices have to be considered as well." The three hottest sellers cited were Toyota's Prius plug-in hybrid, Nissan's Leaf, and Tesla's Model S.
Above: Tesla Model S (Source: Inhabitat)
Scientific American references this remarkable trend in electric vehicle sales and states, "The rollout of new and second-generation plug-in models that can go longer on a single charge by major automakers has ushered in what some analysts call a second era in electric vehicles. As a response, sales of plug-in cars in recent months have been ticking upward, despite low gas prices. Older models have made their way onto an increasingly flourishing used car market." As an example, they tell the story of "Jane Koca [who] grinned as she stepped out of a Tesla Model S at a neighbor's ride-and-drive event, where half a dozen models were on display. Her next car, she said, will be a plug-in."