November 13, 2017

Tesla gains massive market share from competitors [Infographic]

With Model 3 slowly but surely rolling off Tesla's assembly line, many are pondering the impact that the revolutionary EV is likely to have on the overall auto market. Will Model 3 take market share away from popular mid-size luxury sedans? Any crystal ball-gazer wishing to answer that question will surely start by looking at how Model S has fared vis a vis legacy models in its class.

Above: Tesla's Model S (Image: EVANNEX)

Regular visitors to this space already know that Model S has dominated the large luxury segment for some time now. However, a new infographic from the UK firm Select Car Leasing (via ValueWalk) adds some details to that picture.

This infographic compares the sales of Model S to those of “competing” sedans from Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Jaguar. The electric trendsetter’s share of this segment has grown rapidly, from almost nothing in 2013 to 35% in 2016.

Upstart Tesla is stealing a lot of sales from these venerable European brands. Of the seven fossil models compared here, only one - the BMW 7 Series - saw its sales grow in the period 2014-2016. The rest posted substantial losses, while Model S sales soared by 43%.

A chart of year-on-year sales for 2013-2016 also makes for some interesting reading. Other than the BMW 7 Series and the Mercedes S Class, the legacy models show clear downward trends, while Tesla’s numbers are spiking ever upwards.

Above: A look at both the Model X and Model S (Image: EVANNEX)

Of course, not only is Tesla beating gas-powered sedans in its class, it has also dominated the overall electric vehicle market - so far in 2017, Model S holds the top spot in US sales, and Model X is either #2 (as estimated by EVObsession) or #3 (InsideEVs). (This could change - the Chevy Bolt is coming up fast in the mirror, and there are signs that GM is getting serious about selling it.)

Another interesting trend - and one often overlooked by the prophets of doom emboldened by TSLA’s recent stock price decline - is that the company’s revenue has steadily accelerated, from $14 million in 2008 to $7 billion in 2016. No, that healthy revenue has not translated into profits - Tesla has plowed every cent of its revenue, and then some, into developing new products, and the quarterly losses seem certain to continue at least until Model 3 reaches full production mode.

And we’ll have to wait for that glad day before we have an answer to the question posed above. Model 3 may have over 400,000 pre-orders on the books, but until Tesla starts delivering substantial numbers of vehicles, we won’t know if the new model will emulate its father’s feats of market share conquest.

However, several industry observers have already published detailed comparisons between Model 3 and so-called competing models, and reading these, the inevitable conclusion is that the real question is not if, but when.