Posted on September 28, 2016 by Matt Pressman
Tesla Motors [NASDAQ: TSLA] has captivated car buyers with it's growing electric vehicle line-up. With the introduction of the Tesla Model 3, approximately 400,000 customers have pre-ordered the forthcoming $35,000 electric car. It's being hailed as a game changer. To that end, GTM Research* just published a new study. GTM's Wood Mackenzie explains, "With as much publicity as electric cars have garnered since Tesla’s unveiling of its Model 3, there is no dearth of skeptics and believers.... [this report] looks at the Model 3, its impact on the greater electric vehicle [EV] market, and what widespread EV adoption could mean for the oil and power sectors."
Above: Tesla's current electric vehicle line-up (Instagram: @calvinklesmith)
Furthermore, Mackenzie explains additional objectives of the study: "It attempts to answer the big question: Is the Model 3 truly a disruptive force, signaling a possible electric car revolution? This report provides detailed insight into the unveiling of Tesla’s Model 3 and the broader implications of electric car saturation in the US transport sector... [and] delves into the supply chain for key EV components, and provides an analysis on carbon emission reductions."
Above: CO2 per mile comparison - EVs vs. Gasoline (Source: GTM Research*)
According to the study's minimum base case: "By 2035, Wood Mackenzie estimates that electric vehicles will account for 12 percent of new-car sales in the U.S., which represents 16 million vehicles. This base-case scenario [see below] would mean a reduction of gasoline demand by 350,000 barrels per day, a 5 percent reduction of today’s consumption."
Above: Sector Demand Impacts of EV Adoption - Base Case (Source: GTM Research*)
That said, the study also forecasts more aggressive scenarios based on higher electric vehicle adoption rates: "Wood Mackenzie’s 'increased adoption' case assumes that in 2035, electric vehicles will represent 85 percent of all new car sales. Under this scenario, U.S. gasoline consumption would be reduced by 1 million barrels a day. In Wood Mackenzie's 'disruptive' scenario, the impact could be as high as 2 million barrels per day."
Above: Vignettes showcasing all aspects the Tesla Model 3 (Youtube: Cars and Dogs)
The study concludes, “The impact of Model 3 on the larger energy markets will not be in how many Model 3’s Tesla sells but what it has arguably done to spur wider electric-car production,” according to Prajit Ghosh, GTM's research director. “Movements toward producing more models and brands of electric cars are already underway, and by 2020 consumers will have many more EV options than they do today.” In the U.S., GM has already attempted to kick off some competition with the the Chevy Bolt. China is aggressively moving into the electric vehicle space. And, based on recent reactions from top German automakers, it appears that Tesla is definitely impacting future vehicle electrification efforts industrywide.
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