What Do Analysts Expect From Tesla's Q2 Deliveries?

Analysts and shareholders eagerly await Tesla’s details on second-quarter deliveries, expected to be released over the coming weekend. Despite some recent downgrades for the company’s stock, analysts are still predicting that the automaker will break its own record for global Q2 deliveries in comparison with the same quarter last year.

Above: A Tesla Model Y (Image: Casey Murphy / EVANNEX).

Tesla is expected to release its Q2 deliveries this Sunday. FactSet data shows that Wall Street predicts a roughly 74 percent increase year over year, or as many as 445,000 deliveries, according to Investor’s Business Daily. The estimate would easily place Tesla above its 254,695 units delivered in the same quarter last year.

In Q2 2022, Tesla was still ramping up production at Gigafactories in Germany and Austin, Texas. Meanwhile, Giga Shanghai was partially shut down due to COVID-19-related lockdowns, which also negatively affected Q2 deliveries.

If analyst expectations are right, the Q2 increase would also be a jump from Tesla’s Q1 deliveries, which rose 36 percent year over year from the same quarter last year, and reaching a total of 422,875 deliveries.

Piper Sandler said it’s expecting Tesla to reach 469,000 deliveries for Q2, though analyst Alex Potter said that the prediction “may be a tad high.” Still, he points to margins as the central focus for investors heading into the weekend.

"Regardless of the outcome this weekend, we wouldn't be surprised to see profit-taking in the coming months, given the stock's recent outperformance, as well as the likelihood of operational hiccups," Potter said in a written note to clients. "The outlook for gross margin will probably be even more important than production. Prices have been stable, but price cuts in Q3, if any, could reignite concern re: margins."

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were among those revising Tesla price targets and ratings in the last week or so, following the automaker’s longest-running win streak yet. Despite getting four stock downgrades in the days since the rally, the company also gained a pair of upgrades this week.

Deutsche Bank raised its Tesla price target to $230 from $200, and it maintained a Buy on the stock. The investment firm also increased its estimate on Tesla’s Q2 deliveries to 448,000, slightly above the general consensus among analysts. The estimate is made up of the firm’s expectations that Tesla will sell 168,000 units in North America, 153,000 in China, 87,000 in Europe and 23,000 throughout the rest of the world.

On the year, analysts are forecasting 1.82 million Tesla deliveries, in comparison with just 1.313 in 2022. Tesla hasn’t said how many deliveries it expects to reach for the full year, though the automaker has been optimistic about its production expectations.

Tesla shared a production target of about 1.8 million for this year, and CEO Elon Musk told shareholders in April that Tesla remains “comfortable” with the forecast. If things go well, Musk says, we may even be able to expect as many as 2 million deliveries for the full year — though this could be ambitious.

"These are volatile times," Musk said. "From a production standpoint, if things go well, we've got a shot at 2 million vehicles here. But that is the upside case."

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Source: Investor’s Business Daily