Tesla's Model S market dominance could foreshadow Model 3's future

Recently famed Apple analyst Gene Munster predicted market share gains ahead for Tesla based on a survey executed by his firm Loup Ventures. It turns out there are other indictors that point to market share gains down the line for Tesla. With so much riding on the success of Model 3, Seeking Alpha's Victor Dergunov remains convinced that a stock "breakout appears imminent... and new all-time highs [are] very likely" for Tesla.

Above: Tesla's Model 3 on the same road as Model S (Source: Michael Schoening/EVANNEX)

Dergunov bases his assumptions on a variety of reasons, but one factor — Tesla's pre-established Model S market dominance — could prove indicative of future success with Model 3. Across the pond, "Model S outsold Germany’s big three luxury sedan manufacturers on their own European home turf last year. Model S sales rose a whopping 30% yoy to 16,132 units in Europe. Model S sales came in well ahead of Mercedes S Class’ 13,359 units, and BMW 7 series’ 11,735 units."

Above: Tesla's flagship sedan, the Model S (Instagram: Beat Jau / Youtube: Beat Jau)

And it's not just Europe where Model S is winning big. Back here in the U.S., "Model S dominated its market segment, selling more units than Mercedes S class, BMW 7 series, and Audi A8 combined. Furthermore, while Tesla saw its U.S. sales increase by about 10% over last year, S Class declined by 15.5%, 7 Series sales were down by 28%, Lexus LS sales declined by 25%, and Audi A8 gave up about 25% as well."

Above: A look inside the Tesla store (Instagram: beautyoftesla)

Can all this success foreshadow future market share penetration for Tesla's lower-priced Model 3 sedan? Dergunov points out five reasons why Model S market dominance could prove "significant" for Tesla shareholders moving forward...

1. It shows that Model S is capable of not only competing with electric vehicles, but it demonstrates that Tesla vehicles can dominate their respective automotive segments whether it's competing with EVs or ICE vehicles.
2. It shows that ICE auto buyers have a "strong willingness" to switch to Tesla automobiles, as indicated by declining sales in most other major competing manufacturers.
3. It shows that even on their home turf in Europe, German automakers are not immune from relinquishing market share to Tesla.
4. It shows that if Tesla can achieve this level of success in both Europe and the U.S., the trend can continue to other regions, most notably Asia.
5. It shows that if the Model S can reach this level of success in the large luxury sedan segment, the Model 3 can reach a similar level of domination in the higher volume mid-sized luxury sedan segment.

Above: All three Teslas parked together (Instagram: elonmusk.manofcentury)

And just in case folks thought that Tesla's success (with Model S) was a "fluke" only possible in that particular market segment, Dergunov points out similar success (with Model X) in a vastly different SUV segment. Even on Germany's home turf in Europe, he points out, "the Model X also sold extremely well, as European sales came in at 12,000 units last year. Tesla’s SUV outsold much of the competition, selling about as often as the Porsche Cayenne vehicle, and even beating out BMW’s popular X6 model."

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Source: Seeking Alpha