EVs Are Crushing Oil Demand — With or Without U.S. Tax Credits

Last week, U.S. lawmakers handed Big Oil a win by fast-tracking a fossil-friendly bill — dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill” — that cuts clean energy tax incentives and gives fresh breaks to oil and gas giants. But while it may feel like a speed bump for electric vehicles (EVs), the broader story is crystal clear: the EV revolution isn’t slowing down. In fact, it’s accelerating — and it’s already shaking up the oil industry in a big way.

According to BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025, EVs are already displacing over two million barrels of road fuel per day. That’s the equivalent of South Korea’s daily oil consumption. And by the end of the decade, that number is expected to soar past five million barrels. Oil demand isn’t just flattening — it’s falling fast.

Even with the U.S. scaling back federal support, global EV adoption remains on a sharp upward trajectory. Countries like China and members of the European Union are doubling down on electrification, incentivizing everything from battery production to public charging infrastructure. If the U.S. decides to sit on the sidelines, it may simply end up watching others lead the clean energy transition.

Tesla, of course, remains central to this global shift. With a lineup of highly efficient EVs, a vertically integrated supply chain, and its Supercharger network expanding globally (even being tapped by legacy oil companies like BP), Tesla is not just part of the EV ecosystem — it's shaping it.

And oil companies have taken notice.

Chevron recently secured 125,000 hectares in Texas and Arkansas for lithium extraction. BP is buying charging hardware from Tesla and Alpitronic. Shell Recharge is rapidly expanding its footprint, opening mega-stations like its 258-stall fast-charging hub in Shenzhen. The fossil fuel industry is scrambling to rebrand itself as a player in the EV space — because they know where the world is headed.

To understand the scope of change: the first million barrels of oil displaced by EVs took until 2018. It took just six more years to double that figure. And now, the pace is only picking up.

Sure, losing U.S. tax credits stings. But EV adoption was never just about incentives — it’s about better technology, lower fuel and maintenance costs, and a cleaner planet. Once drivers go electric, they rarely look back. The internal combustion engine is on borrowed time.

So while the U.S. may be having a moment of fossil-fueled nostalgia, the global EV movement continues — led by innovation, driven by necessity, and powered by millions of people who are done pumping gas.