Will Tesla's Cybertruck Be As Popular As The Model Y?

Production of the Tesla Cybertruck is on its way, and with the Model Y surpassing an important sales milestone in the first quarter, some wonder if the futuristic truck could reach similar highs. As experts debate whether the Cybertruck will reach meteoric sales levels or simply be a niche product, one analyst gives his two cents for why he thinks it could even outsell the Model Y in time.

Above: A Tesla Cybertruck rendering (Image: Casey Murphy / EVANNEX).

Tesla bull Sam Korus of ARK Invest argues that the Cybertruck will become a mainstream product that could even become more popular than the Model Y, according to a report from InsideEVs. While some have far lower expectations for the truck, he considers this position to be “based on a blind spot.”

"Today, most automakers fund the development and sales of unprofitable EVs with profits from their gas-powered truck sales,” Korus wrote in a recent blog post for ARK. “If the Cybertruck were to disrupt that profit center, traditional automakers could end up in trouble."

Based on its research, ARK expects the global electric vehicle market share to reach more than 70 percent by 2027, with the U.S. trailing a bit behind this figure. Korus also cites the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which forecasts trucks to make up 69 percent of all U.S. vehicle sales by 2050. Still, the forecast also estimates only 10 percent of these will be electric trucks, though ARK disagrees.

Korus and ARK say that the 1.6 million preorders garnered by the Cybertruck are significant too. Additionally, the investment firm says early Google Trends data shows that there were more searches for the Cybertruck than for the Model Y on April 2, after CEO Elon Musk had just finished walking the production line for the truck at Gigafactory Texas. Specifically, the search data was higher in regions where trucks were more popular, according to ARK.

Critics argue that Google Trends data is not sufficient evidence to say that the Cybertruck would become more popular than the Model Y in time. In addition, preorders may not necessarily equate to purchases, as people can still decide to cancel before buying the vehicle. Still, ARK claims that the Google search data is “potentially suggesting desire to buy.”

"While sell-side analysts may be uncomfortable forecasting exponential EV growth, we believe it would be a mistake for them not to consider the implications Cybertruck success could have for traditional automakers."

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